World Bulletin / News Desk
The Turkish lira may strengthen somewhat from its current depressed level but it remains dependent on a calm context, inside and outside of the country, experts on emerging markets have indicated.
The Turkish lira reached a four-week high against the U.S. dollar on Monday with the dollar/lira exchange rate dipping as low as 3.6590.The exchange rate had hovered between 3.80 and 3.67 over the past two weeks after surpassing 3.94. It started trading at 3.6930 as of 9 a.m. (0600GMT) Tuesday morning.
Timothy Ash of BlueBay Asset Management said the Turkish lira seemed cheap compared to other currencies, claiming this would lead, save for unexpected domestic or international shocks, to the strengthening of the lira in the short and long term.
"I think from most matrices, the lira is cheap -- by historical comparisons, and versus peers," Ash told Anadolu Agency in an email.
Noting the global backdrop was currently beneficial for the lira, with the market expecting a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve in March, Ash said it was also buoyed by stronger U.S. and global growth data as well as by the Turkish Central Bank's "dynamic" tightening.
"Risks for the lira could build though [going] into the referendum and the French presidential election in April. So we could see a bit more short-term lira strength over the next few weeks, but then a weakening again in March/early April, but assuming the referendum result is market friendly, [at the year's] end we could see the lira strengthen again," he added.
A referendum on the country's new constitution is expected to take place in April.
While optimism remains over the world economy and corporate earnings -- helping push global markets to all-time or multi-month highs -- investors moved carefully as they await the next catalyst.
BIST 100 index rises 1.18 pct while US dollar/Turkish lira rate stands over 3.63
BIST 100 index falls 0.24 pct while US dollar/Turkish lira rate climbs to 3.69
National Bank of Ethiopia says devaluation of its currency necessary to boost exports
In its latest forecast, the IMF predicted the Russian economy will expand by 1.8 percent in 2017 and by 1.6 percent in 2018.
Nobel committee says US economist was awarded for his contributions to behavioral economics
BIST 100 index falls over 3.5 pct while dollar/Turkish lira rate climbs to 3.68
Hong Kong's main stocks index hit a 10-year high after another record overnight close on Wall Street following more buoyant US data and hopes for tax reform, which has also boosted the dollar.
Russia spends about 4.5 percent of GDP annually on improvements to infrastructure, says energy minister
S&P closes at all-time high for sixth straight day -- a first since 1997
Food Price Index rose by 4.3 pct year-on-year due to higher vegetable oil, dairy prices: Food and Agriculture Organization
India to provide credit line to tune of $95 million to Ethiopia for electric transmission line, says Indian president
Amazon says it will study European Commission ruling and consider its legal options, including an appeal