World Bulletin / News Desk
Falling yields are painting an even bleaker outcome than anticipated for Russia's wheat crop, while longed-for rainfall in Ukraine and Kazakhstan won't rescue drought-hit harvests across the Black Sea area, forecasters and analysts said on Thursday.
Declining yields in Siberia and the Urals region prompted Moscow-based analyst group SovEcon to cut its Russian wheat crop forecast to 39 million tonnes from 39-41 million tonnes.
"With a sharp decline in the contributions from Siberia and the Urals, estimates for the Russian wheat harvest are falling significantly - lower, perhaps, than even the most conservative market expectations," SovEcon said in a note.
Wheat yields in Siberia and the Urals have fallen below 1 tonne per hectare. Citing ministry data, SovEcon pinpointed yields in Chelyabinsk region at 0.6 tonnes per hectare and in Omsk region at 0.8 tonnes per hectare.
Parts of Siberia are expecting cold night-time temperatures over the next few days, as low as minus 2 degrees Celsius (28.4 degrees Fahrenheit), the Federal Hydrometeorological Centre said on its website in a weather forecast for Aug. 23-25.
It said the possibility of wildfires remained very high in the Novosibirsk and Altai regions, despite forecast rain.
Russian Agriculture Minister Nikolai Fyodorov forecast the country's grain crop this year at the lower end of its previous range of between 75 million and 80 million tonnes, saying trends in the weather were "not very favourable."
The minister did not give a new forecast for the wheat crop.
Russia had harvested about 50 million tonnes of grains as of Aug. 23, data published on the ministry's website, www.mcx.ru, showed.
Sharply reduced crop forecasts from Russia - which harvested 94 million tonnes of grain last year, including 56.2 million tonnes of wheat - have given rise to concerns the country might once again ban exports, helping drive global prices higher.
Benchmark global corn and soybean prices hit record highs this summer in a fierce rally, sweeping wheat up with them, as the worst U.S. drought in 56 years ravaged crops.
Russia banned grain exports for almost a year after a severe drought two years ago, the catalyst for a surge in grain prices and related political instability in the import-dependent Middle East and North Africa regions.
Fyodorov, who last week ruled out such a ban, reiterated his position in an interview with state TV channel Rossiya 24.
"We are categorically against any measures which would destroy the market," he said. "We need to make very cautious moves."
RAINFALL TOO LATE
Drought during the winter sowing campaign and severe frosts in January and February hit winter grain yields in Ukraine, which fell to an average of 2.60 tonnes per hectare in 2012 from 3.06 tonnes per hectare last year.
Ukraine, targeting a 2012 grain crop of 45 million tonnes, has harvested its early grains, mostly wheat and barley.
Its wheat harvest fell to 16.3 million tonnes from 22.3 million tonnes in 2011, while the barley harvest fell to 7.2 million tonnes this year from 9.1 million tonnes.
Hot weather in July could also have damaged output of late grains, analysts said, with recent rainfall and a drop in temperature unlikely to improve crop conditions significantly.
"Following the extraordinarily hot and dry weather, the air temperature dropped by 7 to 10 degrees and rain fell everywhere," UkrAgroConsult consultancy said in a report.
It said most late crops in southern Ukraine were in poor condition, except those plantings under irrigation.
"In many areas, maize, soybean and sunflower crops are drought-stressed, have ripened prematurely and formed low yields. Part of them was even lost," the consultancy said.
Weather forecasters say hot weather is likely to return to most Ukrainian regions in the next few days, with temperatures reaching 30-32 degrees Celsius in eastern and southern regions.
Ukraine cut its maize output forecast to 20 million tonnes from an earlier 25 million tonnes due to drought. Last year, the country's maize harvest was 22.7 million tonnes.
Forecasters expect rain in Astana and the grain belt north of Kazakhstan's capital in the next few days. The Agriculture Ministry forecasts a 2012 grain crop of 13 million tonnes, less than half of last year's post-Soviet record 27 million tonnes.
The ministry said that Kazakhstan had harvested grain from 4.29 million hectares, or nearly 28 percent of the sown area, as of Aug. 22. The country had threshed 3.1 million tonnes, with yields so far averaging only 0.73 tonnes per hectare.
Despite the lower crop, Kazakhstan expects carryover stocks from last year's record crop to permit exports of between 10 million and 12 million tonnes in the current marketing year, only slightly below the 12.1 million tonnes shipped in 2011/12.
OPEC's second-largest producer, Iran is normally among the first members of the oil producers' group to call for supply cuts to support prices.
The 21-member Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) bloc said they would advance structural reforms to unleash new sources of growth.
Ukraine needs to pay its previous debt to Russia by the end of the year and pay in advance for getting new volumes of natural gas
The loss of Khafji's 280,000 barrels per day of Arabian Heavy crude will be felt more in Kuwait, which has far less spare output than its neighbour
Under Lufthansa's proposals, pilots would still be able to retire early, but the age would gradually increase to 60 from 55.
Labor tension on the rise as high inflation reduces spending power.
Third quarter growth was lowest in more than five years, threatening annual target
De Margerie was killed when a business jet collided with a snow plough during takeoff at Moscow's Vnukovo International Airport overnight, the company and airport officials said.
Stabilised political and security situation, the launch of government initiatives toward fiscal consolidation and strong support from external donors are some of the reasons given for improved economic outlook.
Norway will not supply gas to Europe in case of supplies being cut by Russia, says Norwegian Energy Minister Lien
A fall in global oil prices, down more than 20 percent from this year's June high, means that ending costly diesel subsidies will save the government money without hurting consumers.
EU officials said the gas talks would continue in Brussels next week, with Poroshenko telling reporters that the financing still needed to be resolved.
The food-producing regions of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia in West Africa have been severely affected by the worst outbreak on record of the viral haemorrhagic fever
Fall in crude oil prices will effect Iran's oil industry more than Western sanctions
Widodo currently plans to raise the price of both gasoline and diesel by 3,000 rupiah ($0.25) per litre by November, the advisor said.
Mario Pezzini and Romano Prodi jointly emphasized that Africa should be of priority for European Union’s future development policies.