The bomb that exploded in the downtown district of Ulus in the Turkish capital changed the political atmosphere of Ankara.
The air of tension that had settled in the political arena with the recent presidential election is now producing conspiracy theories, and the rumors that the elections scheduled for July 22 may be canceled following a Turkish military operation into northern Iraq have reached the ears of the Justice and Development Party (AK Party).
Theory 1: A military operation into northern Iraq is imminent: Chief of General Staff Gen. Yaşar Büyükanıt, speaking at a press conference on April 12, had stated that a military operation into northern Iraq would be useful but that a political decision would be needed for it.
The Turkish Armed Forces’ (TSK) ongoing military deployment to the border provinces, which started following Büyükanıt’s remarks, is considered a hint signaling an imminent operation into northern Iraq. As the TSK makes its final preparations for its Operation Sledgehammer, military vehicles are being transported via railway to Nusaybin, in Mardin, from where they are deployed via the highway to areas that are close to the border. The recent dismissal of Edip Baser, the former Turkish anti-terrorism coordinator, too, implies that the Turkish military is preparing for a cross-border operation.
Theory 2) Elections may be canceled due to war: Under the Constitution elections are postponed for one year if Turkey enters a war. The Republican People’s Party (CHP), the Democratic Left Party (DSP) and the neo-nationalists have been trying to ensure the postponement of the elections currently scheduled for July 22. The timing and scope of the Turkish military operation may change the future of the elections. The secularist circles who are not warm to the idea of election of the president by popular vote may urge the government to postpone the elections on grounds of war and conflicts in the region, it is argued.
Theory 3) Will the president be elected directly by the people?: The fate of the constitutional amendment package introducing the election of the president by popular vote will be determined this week. Whether President Ahmet Necdet Sezer will veto the package or not is not known. Some columnists argue that Sezer may not disclose his decision about the package within the time period allocated to this purpose. There are rumors originating from the circles close to the AK Party that provisions pertaining to the popular vote of the president for two five-year terms may be taken out of the package. It is argued that Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, upon meeting with Büyükanıt in İstanbul, assured him that the package would be split into two.
Theory 4) A two-party Parliament is imagined: According to backstage conspiracy theories, the purpose of social engineering attempts exemplified in the e-memorandum of April 27 is to create a two-party Parliament. As the AK Party has preserved its voter base to a great extent, social engineers are trying to create the biggest neo-nationalist and secularist bloc against it. In this context, the Youth Party (GP) is expected to join the CHP and the DSP alliance as the final stage of this political design as this alliance has no chance of securing a winning majority.
Theory 5) SHP is excluded from the secularist bloc: The Social Democratic People’s Party (SHP), led by Murat Karayalçın, is excluded from the alliance between the CHP and the DSP, political analysts argue, due to its election cooperation with the now-defunct Democratic People’s Party (DEHAP) in the 2002 elections. This bloc describes itself as the “neo-nationalist and secularist stance of opposition to separatists and collaborators” and therefore, is blacklisting the SHP for its cooperation with a pro-Kurdish party.
Final theory) Baykal is ready for the Prime Ministry: Acting as the forerunner of the secularist bloc against the AK Party, CHP leader Deniz Baykal is dreaming of single party government and the Prime Ministry. To increase the chances of this government, Baykal is offering an olive branch to the GP, with which he formerly refused to cooperate. Baykal has even identified the possible members of the Cabinet he will establish after the elections.
Last Mod: 24 Mayıs 2007, 10:05