The Russian bear is showing its claws again, but how sharp are they? President Vladimir Putin has rattled the West with a wave of dramatic military announcements redolent of the Cold War.
Long-range Russian bombers capable of carrying nuclear weapons are back on flying patrol around the world, prompting NATO fighters to scramble in response. New long-range missiles have been test-fired, one streaking from one end of Russia to the other in less than half an hour, according to official accounts. And the former Red Army is re-equipping itself, with defense spending growing 20-40 percent a year since Putin came to power in 2000, albeit from a low base after the ravages of the 1990s.
Should be West be worried? "Overall, Russia's military capability is well below 50 percent of what the Soviet Union had," Peter Felstead, editor of Jane's Defence Weekly, said in a telephone interview. The bombers resuming flights was more a prestige thing and a diplomatic signal than real military posturing. The State Department in Washington dismissed the bombers' reappearance as Russia taking old aircraft out of mothballs -- an unflattering reference to the backbone of Moscow's fleet, the propeller-driven Tupolev-95 which first flew in 1952.
The West doesn't terribly need to worry, said Christopher Langton, a retired colonel who works as a Senior Fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London. Most of the product of the Russian military-industrial complex is for the export market to bring in revenues. Little goes to the domestic market.
Years of neglect
In the army, most tanks are outdated models from the 1960s and 1970s, according to IISS figures. Russia's navy has just one operational aircraft carrier after five others were decommissioned and sold to China and India in the 1990s.
And despite pledges to re-equip the military, analysts say new high-tech versions of existing weapons are still snapped up abroad before they come into service at home. "The first buyer for the modernized MiG-29 (fighter) is Yemen and the second is Eritrea," said Ruslan Pukhov, director of Moscow's Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies.
Defense experts say that apart from Moscow's strategic nuclear forces, which were relatively well-funded in the 1990s, most of the military needs to overcome years of neglect.
Russia has started an eight-year $189 billion program to replace nearly half of existing military hardware by 2015, including modern Topol-M missiles, missile-carrying aircraft, motor vehicles and ships, according to official information. But Yevgeny Bendersky, a senior analyst with the privately-funded Power and Interest News Report in Washington said the impressive-sounding defense spending masked deficiencies on other fronts, such as the quality of manpower.
It also helped to hide Russia's domestic social problems. 'What we are seeing now is a pattern very similar to the Soviet Union," he added. Outwardly Russia seems very strong, especially in the field of energy, but inwardly it's not -- the gap is widening between the rich and the poor, the situation in the countryside is terrible.
Eye on elections
Political and defense analysts say Putin's bold statements may be aimed at impressing voters before presidential and parliamentary elections in the coming months. "Putin is grandstanding," agreed Giles Merritt, director of the Brussels think-tank Security and Defence Agenda. A lot of their stances are directed at making people sit up and say Russia is really a great power without having any specific aims in mind.
The Kremlin says its military buildup should not worry anyone. Russia's 2007/8 defense budget is half that of Britain's and less than one-tenth of the United States', it says. "The change in Russian military spending is insignificant compared with the military buildup of the United States or Great Britain," "Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. "We had quite a long period of under funding of military programs...and of course it has to be compensated. Everything is gradually returning to normal."
Felstead of Jane's Defence Weekly said the West's biggest headache might not be Russia's armed forces but some of their overseas customers like Iran, Venezuela or Syria. Russia still has certain key technologies which we don't have in the West," he said. "If the latest air defense systems find their way from the former Soviet Union to places like Iran, this could have a big impact."
Last Mod: 02 Eylül 2007, 19:34