World Bulletin/News Desk
In the run up to the highest level nuclear talks to take place between the US and Iran for over a quarter of a century, due to take place in Geneva on October 15-16, analysts asses what position Iran will take.
The talks will include representatives from the UN five permanent members and Germany, also known as P5+1.
The real cause for the "new flexibility" being displayed by Iran, according to Hassan Mneimneh, senior fellow for the Middle East and North Africa and the Islamic World with the German Marshall Fund, is that since 2006, the cost of non-compliance to Iran on the Nuclear issue has been harsh.
The US imposed broad economic sanctions against Iran from 1980.
A ban on the supply of heavy weaponry and nuclear-related technology, a block on Iranian arms exports, an asset freeze on key individuals and companies, cargo inspections to detect and stop Iran's acquisition of illicit materials were all imposed against Iran between 2006 and 2010 following its refusal to halt uranium enrichment.
This has hit its vital oil exports and severely restricted its international bank transfers. Inflation has increased and the value of its currency has fallen, according to news reports over the last few years.
In previous rounds of talks, the world powers demanded Iran stop the enrichment, shut down its Fordo uranium enrichment facility and export its supply of low- and medium-enriched uranium - a demand known as "stop, shut, ship",a demand Iran under former Iranian President Ahmadinejad failed to comply with.
US and its allies believe that Iran is developing nuclear weapons, however the Iranians say they are enriching uranium for Iran says its nuclear program is peaceful, and has enriched uranium to less than 5%, consistent with fuel for a civilian nuclear power plan.
Lawrence J. Korb, an analyst from the Center for American Progress says highest level-nuclear talks between the US and Iran are a promising development and there is a chance that Iran might comply.
"The controversial issue is whether Iran will let international monitors in. The US and its aillies might suspend the sanctions if Iran’s agrees to grant access to all sites," Korb says.
Mneimneh agrees with this assessment; "the pressure has reached a point where, in the US assessment, Iran may be responsive to an offer of settlement -strict supervision of its civilian program and less bellicose rhetorics in exchange for easing of the sanctions, with normalization as a long term end," he says.
"There is a danger the two parties could play for time, during which better conditions on the ground could be achieved", Mneimneh says."The talks may get to be substantial soon, but this in itself is no indication of imminent success. The odds for a happy ending, today, are slim."
Mneimneh says Israel views the US-Iran talks with utter skepticism adding "Iran, from the Israeli perspective, is evidently bluffing to gain time, strengthen its positions, and secure the path to a nuclear weapon."
"The question, as viewed from Israel, is whether the US is allowing unduly optimistic assessments to misguide it and hence will face disappointment in due course, or whether the Obama Administration is willingly engaging in the risky exercise of containment through diplomacy with the potential of failure being most damaging for Israel," he says.
Russia, China and India reject any further sanctions aganist Iran.
Turkey also said that it would not adopt any oil embargo. Its energy minister said any decisions on sanctions taken outside the UN were not binding for Ankara.Last Mod: 07 Ekim 2013, 12:36